Researchers from the University of Washington have developed a cutting-edge predictive model for ice ages, enhancing our understanding of when the next one may occur. Published last week, the study builds on existing theories that ice ages follow predictable cycles based on Earth’s axial tilt and orbits around the Sun.
Sophie Nuber, a postdoctoral researcher, highlighted that this model is the most accurate yet, enabling predictions about past and future ice ages by analyzing key astronomical factors like the Earth’s eccentricity, precession, and obliquity. These cycles operate over vast timeframes, ranging from 26,000 to 100,000 years.
Using this comprehensive approach, the researchers project that, barring any significant human interference, the next ice age could arrive in about 10,000 years. However, rising levels of CO2 and other greenhouse gases due to human activity present uncertainties that could inhibit future ice age conditions. Nuber emphasized that while the model offers intriguing insights, the impact of climate change may render these predictions moot.
The collaboration involved experts from various institutions, including the University of California and University College London, and aims to further investigate ice sheet dynamics and deep-sea temperatures to support their findings.
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